Black Sheep
August 17, 2026
Well, well, well.
Newfoundland and Labrador has apparently reached ANOTHER massive energy agreement with Quebec over Churchill Falls.
Forgive me if I don’t break out the champagne just yet.
In fact, if you’re a Newfoundlander, I have two pieces of advice:
Don’t hold your breath.
And…
DON’T BLINK.
Because the political landscape in Quebec could change very shortly — and this shiny new 50-year energy agreement may suddenly find itself sitting in the middle of a Quebec election.
The New “Historic” Deal
On August 17, 2026, Hydro-Québec announced that it had signed a Definitive Cooperation and Implementation Agreement with Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro.
Hydro-Québec says the agreement will secure power from Labrador for Quebec for the next 50 years, with access to potentially more than 10,000 MW of electricity.
The agreement includes:
- Churchill Falls supply continuing until 2077
- increased generating capacity at Churchill Falls
- development of Gull Island
- studies into additional hydro development
- potential Labrador wind development
- and a reported electricity cost to Hydro-Québec of about 6¢/kWh. (Hydro-Québec News)
Sounds enormous.
Sounds historic.
Sounds final.
We’ve heard that before.
Remember December 2024?
Because here’s the part Newfoundlanders should remember.
Back in December 2024, Andrew Furey and then-Quebec premier François Legault announced the previous supposedly historic Churchill Falls arrangement.
There were speeches.
There were handshakes.
There was celebration.
Furey even dramatically tore up a copy of the infamous 1969 Churchill Falls agreement.
Finally!
Newfoundland and Labrador was supposedly turning the page on one of the most controversial resource agreements in our history.
Then Newfoundland changed governments.
Tony Wakeham’s Progressive Conservatives came to power.
And what happened?
The new government ordered an independent review of the deal. (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador)
Then in May 2026, that independent review concluded that the proposed agreement was not in Newfoundland and Labrador’s best interest, identifying fundamental problems with the arrangement. (Global News)
So much for “historic.”
Back to the negotiating table everybody went.
And now — presto! — we have another historic deal.
LOL.
But There’s One Tiny Problem: Quebec Is About to Have an Election
This is where things get really interesting.
The Quebec government that negotiated this deal could soon be gone.
Quebec Premier Christine Fréchette is heading toward an election, and opposition parties were already attacking her government over the legitimacy of locking Quebec into an enormous long-term Churchill Falls agreement immediately before voters go to the polls.
And one of the loudest objections came from Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon.
His argument was pretty straightforward: Quebec already has a Churchill Falls contract running until 2041, so why should an outgoing government commit Quebec to another massive long-term arrangement on the eve of an election? (AsatuNews.co.id)
That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement from the man who could potentially become Quebec’s next premier.
So here’s the obvious question:
What happens if the Parti Québécois wins?
Does the new government honour every part of this deal?
Renegotiate it?
Challenge parts of it?
Delay it?
Try to tear pieces of it up?
I don’t know.
And neither does anyone else right now.
That’s the point.
Political scientists were already warning before the agreement was finalized that a possible PQ government — including the possibility of a PQ minority — created substantial uncertainty around getting this agreement completed. (VOCM)
Newfoundland Has Seen This Movie Before
This is why Newfoundlanders should be particularly skeptical whenever politicians stand behind a podium and announce the latest “historic” Churchill Falls agreement.
We have approximately 57 years of reasons to be skeptical.
The original 1969 Churchill Falls contract became one of the most bitter resource-development lessons in Newfoundland and Labrador history.
Newfoundland spent decades trying unsuccessfully to escape or renegotiate it.
So forgive me if I don’t automatically believe that politicians in 2026 have finally cracked the code.
Especially when we’ve essentially watched this happen already:
2024: HISTORIC DEAL!
🎉🎉🎉
2025: Newfoundland changes government.
2026: Independent review says the deal isn’t in Newfoundland and Labrador’s best interest.
🗑️
Back to negotiations.
And now…
August 17, 2026: NEW HISTORIC DEAL!
🎉🎉🎉
Meanwhile Quebec is heading toward an election.
You couldn’t write this shit.
Don’t Blink
And that’s why my reaction today isn’t celebration.
It’s:
Well, well, well…
Here we go again.
Maybe this agreement really does become the foundation for a much better relationship between Newfoundland and Labrador and Quebec.
Maybe Newfoundland finally receives something approaching fair value for one of the greatest renewable-energy resources on Earth.
I sincerely hope so.
But I wouldn’t engrave the commemorative plaque quite yet.
Because governments change.
Premiers disappear.
Political priorities change.
And “historic agreements” have a remarkable tendency to become yesterday’s agreements once somebody else occupies the premier’s office.
The 2024 deal already proved that — in Newfoundland.
The 2026 deal may now face the same political test — in Quebec.
And if the Parti Québécois takes power and decides this deal isn’t in Quebec’s interests?
Well…
Wouldn’t THAT be something?
Newfoundland spent generations wishing it could escape the original Churchill Falls agreement.
Imagine the irony if Newfoundland finally negotiated a Churchill Falls agreement it actually wanted…
and Quebec became the province trying to get out of it.
😂
Now THAT would be one hell of a Newfoundland ending.
So congratulations on the new Churchill Falls deal.
Again.
Don’t hold your breath.
Don’t blink.
And maybe wait until after the Quebec election before putting the champagne on ice.
Because when it comes to Churchill Falls, history has taught Newfoundland one lesson better than almost any other:
A signed deal and a settled deal aren’t always the same damn thing.
Source article: Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador reach energy agreement — Apple News
Leave a Reply