August 21, 2026
There is an old rule I have learned to follow whenever a government announces a “historic deal.”
Ignore the podium.
Ignore the flags.
Ignore the politicians congratulating one another.
Read the damn agreement.
And when you start pulling apart what Newfoundland and Labrador has actually been promised under the latest Churchill Falls arrangement with Québec, something becomes obvious very quickly:
The political sales pitch is considerably bigger than what has actually been secured.
One of the biggest claims surrounding this latest Churchill Falls announcement is that Newfoundland and Labrador has supposedly secured a:
“guaranteed portfolio of transmission to other markets totalling 985 MW.”
That sounds spectacular.
After generations of Newfoundland and Labrador being trapped behind Québec’s geographic and transmission advantage, you could easily read that statement and conclude that we had finally smashed through Québec’s transmission wall.
Almost 1,000 MW of Newfoundland and Labrador electricity independently moving through Québec into New York, New England, Ontario and other lucrative markets.
Except that’s not what the government’s own breakdown shows.
Not even close.
LET’S DO SOMETHING RADICAL: READ THE NUMBERS
The Newfoundland and Labrador government’s August 17 announcement divides that celebrated 985 MW into four pieces:
280 MW — Synthetic Exports
240 MW — CHPE
200 MW — NECEC
265 MW — Direct Transmission
Now get out the calculator.
280 + 240 + 200 = 720 MW
720 MW out of 985 MW is approximately:
73%
And what does the government specifically call the remaining 265 MW?
“DIRECT TRANSMISSION.”
265 ÷ 985 = approximately 27%.
That’s rather important.
Because if the entire 985 MW represented straightforward independent transmission capacity across Québec, why would the government’s own announcement distinguish 265 MW as “direct transmission”?
It wouldn’t.
The government’s own terminology exposes the distinction.
Official Newfoundland and Labrador announcement:
Government of Newfoundland and Labrador — August 17, 2026 Churchill Falls announcement
280 MW OF “SYNTHETIC EXPORTS”
Start with perhaps the most revealing phrase in this whole announcement:
Synthetic exports.
According to the government’s description, Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro sells this electricity to Hydro-Québec while Newfoundland and Labrador receives pricing determined using outside electricity markets.
That can absolutely have economic value.
If Newfoundland gets paid according to lucrative New York, New England or Ontario market prices rather than being stuck with lousy historical pricing, that’s potentially a very good thing.
But there’s an enormous difference between:
getting paid according to an outside market price
and
physically transmitting your electricity independently into that outside market.
The market price can cross the border without Newfoundland’s electricity doing so.
That’s why they’re called synthetic exports.
So let’s stop pretending those two concepts are interchangeable.
They aren’t.
THEN THERE’S 240 MW ASSOCIATED WITH CHPE
CHPE is the Champlain Hudson Power Express connecting Québec to New York.
The government describes 240 MW of the 985 MW portfolio as CHPE-related access.
Again, that sounds impressive until you examine the commercial structure.
Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro sells the electricity to Hydro-Québec.
Hydro-Québec is the party using electricity within its broader system to satisfy its CHPE obligations.
Newfoundland and Labrador receives pricing linked to what Hydro-Québec receives through CHPE, subject to the applicable arrangements and transmission charges.
That’s potentially valuable.
But it is not the same thing as Newfoundland and Labrador independently controlling a 240 MW transmission path across Québec into New York.
Hydro-Québec is still standing between Newfoundland and Labrador and the American customer.
That distinction matters.
ANOTHER 200 MW — NECEC
Then we have another 200 MW associated with NECEC, the New England Clean Energy Connect.
Same fundamental issue.
Newfoundland and Labrador obtains valuable pricing exposure associated with an American export market.
Great.
But again:
market access and market pricing are not automatically synonymous with independent physical transmission rights.
And when you combine these three categories:
280 MW synthetic exports
240 MW CHPE
200 MW NECEC
you get:
720 MW
That’s almost three-quarters of the celebrated 985 MW.
AND THEN WE FINALLY ARRIVE AT THE 265 MW
Here is where the government’s own terminology becomes extremely difficult to explain away.
The remaining:
265 MW
is specifically described as:
“DIRECT TRANSMISSION.”
This reportedly can include electricity from sources such as Muskrat Falls and future wind developments.
So why wasn’t the announcement simply sold accurately?
Why not tell Newfoundlanders and Labradorians:
We have negotiated a portfolio providing improved market pricing and export arrangements totalling 985 MW, including 265 MW of direct transmission.
That would still be significant news.
But that’s nowhere near as politically sexy as making people believe Newfoundland has finally blasted a 985 MW hole through Québec’s transmission wall.
BECAUSE THAT WALL IS THE ENTIRE HISTORICAL STORY
To understand why this distinction matters, you have to go back nearly sixty years.
The original Churchill Falls catastrophe wasn’t simply about a lousy electricity price.
It was also about geography.
Labrador electricity needed access through Québec to reach major outside markets.
Québec possessed enormous leverage because it controlled the practical transmission route.
Newfoundland’s own historical material describes how Québec would not permit Labrador hydroelectricity simply to be transmitted across its territory into Ontario and American markets.
That helped create the bargaining environment that produced the infamous 1969 Churchill Falls power contract during the era of Premier Joey Smallwood.
Historical background:
Newfoundland and Labrador Heritage — Churchill Falls history
Former Premier Brian Tobin described essentially the same problem decades later: Newfoundland couldn’t simply wheel Churchill Falls electricity across Québec and sell it wherever it wanted.
That was Québec’s enormous strategic advantage.
Government of Newfoundland and Labrador — Brian Tobin on Churchill Falls and transmission
And THAT is why the government’s current language about nearly 1,000 MW of “transmission to other markets” deserves scrutiny.
BUT HERE’S AN IMPORTANT HISTORICAL FACT
Newfoundland has achieved some transmission access through Québec before.
That’s important because I don’t want to replace government spin with our own mythology.
In 2009, Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro began wheeling Upper Churchill recall power through Québec into external North American markets.
The Newfoundland government celebrated that development at the time.
Government of Newfoundland and Labrador — 2009 Upper Churchill wheeling announcement
So it would be wrong to say absolutely no Newfoundland electricity has ever broken through the Québec transmission barrier.
It has.
The real question in 2026 is much more interesting:
HAS NEWFOUNDLAND FINALLY BROKEN QUÉBEC’S STRUCTURAL CONTROL OVER ACCESS TO OUTSIDE MARKETS?
Based upon what has actually been announced?
NO.
At least not in anything resembling the sweeping 985 MW breakthrough the political messaging might lead people to believe.
AND HERE COMES THE REALLY BIG PROBLEM
People keep talking about this thing as though it’s finished.
It isn’t.
Read Newfoundland’s own announcement carefully.
The parties still have to work toward:
FINAL BINDING AGREEMENTS.
The announcement refers to implementation occurring following the conclusion of binding agreements.
Even the promised Newfoundland and Labrador electricity rebate is tied to finalization of the definitive agreements.
In other words:
THE POLITICAL ANNOUNCEMENT CAME BEFORE THE FINAL CONTRACT.
Again.
Sound familiar?
It should.
REMEMBER THE 2024 “HISTORIC” CHURCHILL FALLS DEAL?
Newfoundland and Labrador and Québec announced another supposedly transformational Churchill Falls MOU in December 2024.
The numbers were staggering.
Hundreds of billions in projected value.
Churchill Falls expansion.
Gull Island.
New transmission.
Massive additional power.
Politicians called that arrangement historic too.
Government of Newfoundland and Labrador — December 2024 Churchill Falls MOU
Except the MOU was non-binding.
Government of Newfoundland and Labrador — details of the 2024 MOU
Then the government changed.
Then came an independent review.
And what did that review conclude?
That the 2024 MOU:
“as currently configured is not in the overall best long-term interest of the people of the province.”
Read that again.
The supposedly historic agreement wasn’t even considered to be in Newfoundland and Labrador’s overall long-term interest in the form negotiated.
Government of Newfoundland and Labrador — May 2026 independent Churchill Falls review
The MOU ultimately expired without the definitive agreements being completed.
And now, only months later, here we are again.
Another podium.
Another “historic agreement.”
Another avalanche of gigantic numbers.
And once again:
THE DEFINITIVE BINDING AGREEMENTS AREN’T FINISHED.
You couldn’t make this shit up.
$70 BILLION! 14,000 MW! 23,000 JOBS!
Ottawa has joined the sales campaign.
The federal government says the broader Churchill Falls/Gull Island development vision represents nearly $70 billion in investment, approximately 14,000 MW, and potentially 23,000 construction jobs.
We’re even being told the electricity involved could power the homes of Toronto, Montréal and Vancouver combined.
Sounds fantastic.
There’s just one small problem.
A press conference doesn’t generate electricity.
A press release doesn’t build a dam.
A political announcement doesn’t construct transmission lines.
Gull Island still has to happen.
Churchill Falls expansion still has to happen.
Wind projects still have to happen.
Transmission infrastructure has to happen.
Engineering has to happen.
Environmental approvals have to happen.
Indigenous consultation and participation have to happen.
Financing has to happen.
Construction has to happen.
And before much of that:
THE FINAL CONTRACTS HAVE TO HAPPEN.
Federal announcement:
Prime Minister of Canada — August 17 Churchill Falls announcement
So forgive me if I don’t start plugging Toronto, Montréal and Vancouver into Labrador just yet.
AND THEN THERE’S QUÉBEC POLITICS
This might be the biggest elephant standing beside the hydroelectric dam.
Québec still has an election ahead.
And these definitive agreements aren’t safely locked away in a vault somewhere.
Québec’s own political leadership has acknowledged that the agreement still needs to be finalized.
That creates political risk.
A different Québec government can review what its predecessor negotiated.
That does not mean a future Québec government automatically tears everything up.
In fact, Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has indicated he would examine the agreement and would not simply destroy something that he concluded was advantageous to Québec.
That’s actually the point.
Québec’s next government will ask:
IS THIS GOOD FOR QUÉBEC?
And Newfoundland should be asking precisely the opposite question:
IS THIS GOOD ENOUGH FOR NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR?
Those aren’t necessarily the same answer.
SO WHAT DID NEWFOUNDLAND ACTUALLY WIN?
Potentially quite a lot.
And that’s where I’m going to be fair about this.
Better Churchill Falls pricing could be enormously valuable.
CHPE- and NECEC-linked pricing could produce substantial revenue.
Synthetic exports could allow Newfoundland and Labrador to capture external market economics without physically delivering every megawatt into those markets.
265 MW of direct transmission is meaningful.
Additional electricity for Newfoundland and Labrador is meaningful.
Gull Island development could be transformational.
Churchill Falls expansion could be transformational.
Federal investment could be transformational.
There is a legitimate deal buried underneath all the political confetti.
But that doesn’t excuse exaggerating what has actually been secured.
HERE’S THE BLACK SHEEP VERSION WITHOUT THE POLITICAL BULLSHIT
Newfoundland and Labrador has NOT demonstrated that it secured 985 MW of unrestricted, independent physical transmission capacity through Québec.
The government’s own breakdown says:
985 MW — HEADLINE “TRANSMISSION PORTFOLIO”
720 MW — SYNTHETIC/CHPE/NECEC COMMERCIAL ARRANGEMENTS
265 MW — DIRECT TRANSMISSION
That’s:
73% versus 27%.
And Québec remains fundamentally involved in much of the commercial pathway between Labrador electricity and outside customers.
That’s not knocking the transmission wall down.
That’s negotiating considerably better terms for getting around, through and economically beyond parts of it.
Those are very different things.
THE GHOST OF JOEY SMALLWOOD IS STILL STANDING AT THE TRANSMISSION GATE
Nearly sixty years after the Churchill Falls bargain that became one of Newfoundland and Labrador’s greatest political grievances, we’re being told another generation of politicians has finally solved the problem.
Maybe this framework ultimately becomes a fantastic agreement.
I sincerely hope it does.
But history gives Newfoundlanders every damn reason to demand something more substantial than promises.
Show us the definitive agreements.
Show us the transmission rights.
Show us exactly who schedules the electricity.
Show us where delivery legally occurs.
Show us who controls the transmission capacity.
Show us what happens when Québec’s system becomes constrained.
Show us whether the transmission rights are firm or interruptible.
Show us who owns the congestion risk.
Show us the termination provisions.
Show us what happens after a change of government.
And most importantly:
SHOW US THE SIGNED BINDING CONTRACT.
Until then, don’t sell Newfoundlanders the completed megaproject when what you’ve actually signed is another framework for trying to build one.
THE BOTTOM LINE
This isn’t necessarily a bad Churchill Falls arrangement.
Parts of it could ultimately be excellent for Newfoundland and Labrador.
But there is a gigantic difference between:
a potentially transformational framework
and
a transformational project that actually exists.
There is also a gigantic difference between:
985 MW of economic/export arrangements
and
985 MW of independent physical transmission through Québec.
And there is an even bigger difference between:
political promises
and
binding contracts.
Newfoundlanders have already spent nearly sixty years learning that lesson from Churchill Falls.
Maybe this time we should learn it before signing the next one.
Don’t tell me the Québec transmission wall has fallen.
Show me the contract.
Show me the transmission rights.
Show me the 985 MW.
Until then?
The fairy tale is still being written.
#ChurchillFalls #NewfoundlandAndLabrador #HydroQuebec #NLPoli #Quebec #GullIsland #BlackSheepWhistleblower
Leave a Reply